Dynamics and trends of GDP by the expenditure method in Ecuador, period 2014–2023
Keywords:
Gross domestic product, dynamics, expenditure methodAbstract
The analysis is developed through a multiple linear regression model that includes household consumption, government spending, gross fixed capital formation, exports, and imports as explanatory variables. The results show that household consumption is the largest component of GDP, highlighting the fundamental role of domestic demand in the dynamics of the Ecuadorian economy. Furthermore, gross fixed capital formation stands out as the factor with the greatest impact on economic growth, demonstrating a positive and statistically significant relationship. While government spending, exports, and imports do not individually exert a significant influence on the estimated model, these same variables are necessary for the theoretical explanation of economic activity. Significant changes in the country's productive structure were also identified, related to both economic policy decisions and events in the international context. The estimation results show a high level of fit (R² = 0.906), which is important for explaining the model studied. However, the results also reveal structural challenges related to dependence on oil exports and the economy's exposure to external factors, highlighting the need to promote strategies for greater productive diversification.
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